Never Assume, You will Likely Fail Every Single Time

Assumptions are a tricky thing. We are in fact constantly making assumptions. Especially when critical data points for an informed decision are missing. Our brains are wired to make assumptions, to fill information gaps. This stems from a time, when information gaps could literally be deadly. And yet, we should really never assume. We will be wrong every single time.

In our jobs, many of us are likely having to make assumptions on a regular basis. However, what we actually should do, is to make a prediction or forecast based on all the objective data points we can access. There is a huge difference there. An important one, too. The difference is the “objective data points“. Assumptions are not objective. Far from it, actually. And that’s where they become dangerous or at the very least misleading.

So when I am saying never assume, I know it’s impossible not to. All I am suggesting is to make sure, you are using objective data elements, before taking any actions. And then double check them for their objectivity. Because our brain is telling us and even convincing us we are right, even when in fact we are wrong. A so called confirmation bias makes us ignore information that is inconsistent with our beliefs.

Why? Well, apparently whenever we are hearing information, that confirms our assumptions, the brain activates areas in our prefrontal cortex associated with other rewards such as food and money. So as we strive for these “rewards” we will favor information that caters to our beliefs, even if we are say 99% incorrect. You can find more information on the confirmation bias here.

This phenomenon will obviously impact some of us more than others, but I think it’s fair to say we should never assume or rather not 100% trust our assumptions. Unless we made an attempt to increase objectivity. With (scientific) data.

To take a quick detour to conspiracy theories, specifically the the current QAnon conspiracy theories out there. The confirmation bias is playing a huge role in the success of these theories. Scientific data does not seem to support any of the theories or claims, however believers usually will make any effort to avoid, negate or deny this data and it’s credibility, as it goes against their beliefs. It’s a vicious cycle. And for those of us who do understand there are biases, hard to understand or accept, too. But maybe this can shed some light on the “how” or “why”.

Now I am not a political person nor is this a political blog. So I am not talking about never assuming, because of current political developments in the US. I do think that this information is very valuable in the Business environment as well as in our personal lives. We should simply never assume that our assumptions are correct.

They are, to quote Brené Brown, stories we are telling ourselves. Based on our confirmation bias and through the “lenses” of our beliefs, experience, mood, situation and so on. And if we act upon them, they might actually harm us. Or prevent us from getting a resolution we could achieve if we were to fact check our assumptions.

But how can we fact check our assumptions? Especially since there is this bias (and many other unconscious biases)? Well first of all we need to understand and remember we are having this bias. That’s a great first step, that should allow us to be more open minded when it comes to objective data.

The easiest way of obtaining objective data is simply asking. Yes, it’s that simple. We are often times making assumptions about what colleagues, bosses etc. are thinking, how they are going to perceive a certain action of ours or how they themselves are going to react, if faced with certain information.

I had a chat with one of my colleagues once and asked him, how he was doing. I had a sense that he was overwhelmed or exhausted and he indeed confirmed he was pretty stressed and overworked. Mainly because of his attempts to meet his leader’s expectations. His leader is someone, who seems to be working 24/7. Always responding immediately, no matter the time of the day, even on weekends. And my colleague assumed, that this was exactly what was expected from him , too. And he took every (hopefully) innocent comment from his leader as a confirmation of the same.

This colleague was missing his work-life-balance (find my thoughts about work-life-balance here) and asked for my tips. He wanted me to tell him, how to feel less stressed and more balanced. I told him he had to demystify his boss and his super power. He needed to talk to his boss about the story he was telling himself about what his boss was or was not expecting him to do.

Many bosses expect more from themselves, as they do from their colleagues. Or they have a different relationship to their work, are compensating for a missing personal life etc. . They just fail to realize, that they will be taken as the role to model after, if they do not clarify this.

And even if they do, people tend to follow their beliefs, that they have to be the same, to become “as successful” as their boss. So actions will speak louder than words. My team would definitely tell you I am guilty of that. And I am glad they are telling me, when I am.

My colleague’s assumptions were not helpful or healthy for him. They needed verification. Objective data, coming from the source.

A member of my team recently presented a roll-out strategy for our servicing partner to me. Her proposal was following the same approach our inhouse servicing teams are taking. While I listened, I caught myself immediately assuming, that at least one of the servicing sites would not like this approach. I made this assumption based on my experience with the site, which had informed my beliefs.

Had I listened to my confirmation bias, I would have declined her proposal and asked her to change the approach for the partner site, based on what I assumed would be their preferred process. Thankfully I have some experience with assumptions and I never assume that they are correct. Well, at least I am trying.

I still asked her to prepare two more options, that would both still work for us, but could accommodate potential concerns I had experienced in the past. We would then present all three options to the partner and do the best thing to do when verifying assumptions.: ask them for their thoughts. And then listen to their answer.

Glad we did. The partner sites unanimously chose the standard process and her option one. And my assumption was wrong. This actually made me a little bit excited and it also made both of us chuckle after I shared with her, that this is a great example of what I am always answering when someone starts their sentence with…

“I assume….”

“Don’t. Do not assume. Ever.” This is my go to comment, whenever an answer to any of my questions starts with “I assume”. Followed by the question “what do we actually know?” or “what does the data tell us?”.

Many hours (millions at least) of unnecessary work would have been avoided, had people asked, how someone wanted things to be done, instead of assuming they knew. Because let’s face it: how someone wants a certain work to be done, is very subjective. So it’s almost impossible to assume and be right. So really, never assume!

Of course, if you have been given clear instructions and the liberty to decide on the how, that’s a completely different story. That is the permission to do it your way and you do not actually have to make assumptions. If that’s not the case, ask. That’s probably why we were given a mouth or the ability to communicate after all.

We must allow ourselves to be wrong. To validate all of your assumptions, you can list them and then pretend the opposite to be true. What would you be doing differently, if the opposite would be true and what you are believing would not. This way you can help yourself identify your bias traps and allow yourself to accept a different truth.

1. List the things you can be sure are true / facts
2. Identify the parts that are purely your assumption
3. For each assumption, tell yourself the opposite is true and understand how that would change the “story you are telling yourself”
4. Identify the assumptions and, if you can, verify them

Check-out this short excerpt from Brené Brown about the story we are telling ourselves. I read her book and this was one of the more powerful stories that stuck with me. You can find an excerpt here.

The most powerful stories are in fact the ones we are telling ourselves. And now that we are aware, that we do have a bias and they are usually fiction, we can make sure to better navigate them. And we can also use assumptions to our benefit. We could for example tell ourselves i.e. to always assume positive intend. It would save a whole lot of frustration.

There is the saying to be kind to everyone, as you do not know what’s going on in their lives. Living by this principle will be so much easier, if we understood that we should never assume, that our assumptions are correct. We might see a woman / man driving an expensive car, dolled up in the most expensive brands and with expensive jewelry and we tend to assume “they must have it all”. Well, maybe they do. Including an abusive spouse, who is hitting them or verbally abusing them on a regular basis.

We really can’t know, can we?

By assuming and falling for our confirmation bias, we are depriving ourselves of the most important good in life – reality. Some so much so, that they are living in the world of their assumptions, making it impossible to not be fearful and actually enjoy their work, life or both.

Facts might be sometimes uncomfortable. For example when they are telling us, that there is a global pandemic that will take millions of lives. But only when we face the facts, can we live in the reality and act accordingly.

Asking our boss about their actual expectations might reveal, that they in fact expect us to be as present as they are. 24/7. But only when we really know, will we be able to make an informed decision whether this is something we want to and can do.

Facts are not always easily separated from fiction, either. In a 1:1 relationship, the facts should come from the person that is the center of our assumptions. No third party can confirm or disperse your assumptions. And when it comes to our lives or health, I would always go with credited experts. And a second opinion definitely does not hurt there either.

Bottom-line: We really should never assume. But since that’s impossible, fact checks are in order to make sure, we are not acting on our confirmation bias.